What is happening with the cash rate?
Last year, variable rate borrowers were offered a measure of reprieve when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the cash rate three times. After that came a series of hikes at the start of 2026, before the central bank held the rate steady at 4.35% at its meetings in June and August.
As a home loan borrower, you’d be forgiven for thinking that your rates are currently on a see-saw. So where to from here? Economists at the nation’s big four banks previously predicted that the hikes were behind us, but following recent comments from the RBA chief, rates may be rising again sooner rather than later.
Will Australians see rate cuts in 2026?
Here’s what the major banks currently have to say about the RBA’s predicted movements throughout 2026 and into 2027:
- ANZ predicts two 25 basis point hikes, one in September and another in November 2026, bringing the cash rate to 4.85%. At this stage, ANZ economists predict we may see cuts again from November 2027.
- CommBank predicts a 25 basis point hike in September 2026, bringing the cash rate to 4.60%. At this stage, CommBank economists predict we may see cuts again from August 2027.
- NAB predicts a 25 basis point hike in September 2026, and believe another in possible in November. If the first of these hikes comes to pass, it would bring the cash rate to 4.60%. At this stage, NAB economists predict we may see cuts again from August 2027.
- Westpac predicts a 25 basis point hike in September 2026, bringing the cash rate to 4.60%. At this stage, Westpac economists predict we may see cuts again from August 2027.
Where the RBA board formerly met on the first Tuesday of each month, excluding January, it now meets eight times a year, for two days at a time. This means that the RBA’s next cash rate announcement is due on Tuesday September 29 at 2.30pm.
Source: Canstar
